Lebanon is under Hezbollah’s full control — it will be fair game in the latest proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon was stunned on Nov. 4 when its prime minister, Saad Hariri, speaking from Saudi Arabia, delivered a halting resignation speech. Mr. Hariri said he left Beirut because he feared assassination. He placed the blame for his long-distance resignation on Iran and its main ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
In the days since, Saudi Arabia has accused Hezbollah of plotting against the kingdom and ordered Saudi citizens to leave Lebanon. Threats from top Saudi officials are causing new turmoil in a tiny country with complicated sectarian politics, failed power-sharing arrangements and a long history of foreign meddling. Since the end of Lebanon’s civil war in 1990, Hezbollah has entrenched itself in the largely Shiite areas of southern Beirut and southern Lebanon. With Iranian support, it opened schools and hospitals, provided business loans and fielded candidates for parliamentary elections. It also extended its military capability, deploying thousands of missiles along the border with Israel. NYTimes
Say good night, Nasrallah.
Thomas Wictor @ThomasWictor
Writer Mohamad Bazzi has no idea what’s actually happening.
“Why would Saudi leaders risk a new conflagration? They see a way to make common cause with Washington by targeting Hezbollah, one of Iran’s most effective allies.”
Hezbollah threatens Saudis interests and those of Saudi allies.
Also, Hezbollah is a destabilizing influence in the Middle East.
“But Saudi Arabia is already overstretched. Its war against Houthi rebels in Yemen drags on, and the diplomatic dispute with Qatar remains in a stalemate, too.”
The war against the Houthis is called a “holding action.”
Saudi Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir has said, “The Houthis aren’t going anywhere. They just need to learn to live with everyone else.”
The Saudis aren’t trying to defeat the Houthis.
Instead, the goal is to keep the Houthis at bay until their masters–the Iranian mullahs–are gone.
Back to the deeply confused Mohamad Bazzi.
“If Saudi leaders think they can score an easy victory in Lebanon against Hezbollah, it will be another misjudgment that adds to a dangerous and combustible moment in the Middle East.”
What the hell?
Have the Saudis every said they think they can score an easy victory against Hezbollah?
You know what the press does now?
It argues with its own hallucinations.
“If the Saudis think they can make cherry pie from mummified elephants and Volkswagen Beetles, it will be another misjudgment.”
How do these people get hired?
Any one of my followers would do a better job writing about this topic.
This guy: @drawandstrike.
This guy: @Imperator_Rex3.
This guy: @Mr_Alex_Graham.
Here are some things that Mohamad Bazzi doesn’t know:
In 2008, the Saudis offered to destroy Hezbollah, if the US and NATO provided air support, sea power, and logistics.
WikiLeaks cables: Saudis proposed Arab force to invade Lebanon
Saudi Arabia proposed creating an Arab force backed by US and Nato air and sea power to intervene in Lebanon two years ago and destroy Iranian-backed Hezbollah, according to a US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.
The plan would have sparked a proxy battle between the US and its allies against Iran, fought in one of the most volatile regions of the world.
The Saudi plan was never enacted but reflects the anxiety of Saudi Arabia – as well as the US – about growing Iranian influence in Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East.
That was nine years ago. Before the Saudis had stuff like this.
In 2015, Israel trained to evacuate all of Southern Lebanon in 24 hours.
IDF source: We’d evacuate a million Lebanese if war breaks out with Hezbollah
The locals have been preparing for this for nine years.
Oh, and there’s this:
How do we know that the Gulf Cooperation Council trouble with Qatar is real?
Iran opened its airspace to Qatari airliners as an “Eff you!” to Saudi Arabia.
How do we know the airliners are crewed by Qataris, and how do we know what sorts of instruments are on them?
The caption says that this is a Russian Ilyushin bomber. In reality, that’s the the Antonov/Taqnia An-132, the first indigenous Saudi aircraft design.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonov/Taqnia_An-132
It’s an electronic-warfare (EW) variant.
The New York Times is living in the past.
Hezbollah’s fate has nothing to do with Trump.
And Hezbollah will be destroyed without significant damage to Lebanon.
My guess is they won’t even be able to fire their rockets.
This had to happen. Hezbollah is a destabilizing force, and Nasrallah won’t listen.
So he goes into the dumpster, where he belongs…
THIS is beyond incredible.
Thomas Wictor @ThomasWictor
There’s only one solution: GCC strategic special forces will have to go.
They’ll have multiple options.
For one, electronic warfare will make it impossible Hezbollah units to communicate with each other.
Most of the rockets will be neutralized on the ground.
The tunnels and bunkers will be cleared, as they were in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. What I mean is, Hezbollah will be chased out of them.
The infantry positions and antitank positions don’t matter. If the men in them put up a fight, they’ll be wiped out with gunships and the massive firepower of the commandos themselves.
But actual firefights are the final option.
Judging how poorly Hezbollah has performed in Syria, my guess is they won’t want to slug it out with men who have training an order of magnitude higher and who’ve wiped out the Islamic State.
I’ve never seen such a dense concentration of military infrastructure.
A conventional attack is out of the question.
We’re going to see completely new methods of war-fighting.
Remember: Killing masses of people–civilians or Hezbollah–will backfire
The GCC put trillions of dollars into solutions for this exact situation.
I have full faith in the GCC and Israel. Hezbollah will be defeated VERY rapidly.
The dynamics here are completely different from Yemen, Syria, and Iraq.
In THIS case, speed is absolutely necessary. That mind-boggling military infrastructure must be neutralized immediately
I have no doubt that thousands of commandos infiltrated Lebanon months ago.
Don’t forget: All the GCC strategic special forces have women as well.
This will be the first major conflict fought entirely by unconventional forces.
On March 21, 1918, the Germans launched the Spring Offensive.
They’d trained their entire army as special forces.
And initially, they mopped the earth with the Allies. The TRAINING is what made the difference.
But the German supply lines got stretched too thin, and discipline broke down.
Remember, the Germans had been fighting a world war for four years by that time. They were under blockades, and they’d lost millions of men.
Still, the special-forces training allowed the Germans to ALMOST win.
Hezbollah is facing men and women with VASTLY superior training and weapons.
We don’t even KNOW what kinds of weapons will be used.
Just remember: This has to be done.
Don’t be surprised if the overthrow of the mullahs happens simultaneously.
The new Saudi king is like nobody the world has seen.
Qui audet adipiscitur.
“Who dares, wins”
100% correct. Thousands of Saudi backed commandos would have infiltrated Lebanon within the last 6 months at least.Many will already have penetrated Hezbollah’s command & control networks, using an anti-Israeli stance as cover.
As Thomas said, many will be women. They’ll have ‘disappeared’ into areas not controlled by Hezbollah, for example parts of Beirut. And waited.
All will have access to technology that the Hezbollah have never seen. I’m assuming that there’s a command & control centre in Israel, managed by Saudi, IDF & Shin Bet commanders.
Watch what happens. Thomas has already demonstrated how these next gen fighters do business. While Hezbollah looks for an enemy attack from outside, they’ll be hollowed out from the inside.
This will happen quickly. Hezbollah will simply not understand what’s hit them. The chaos will be too much of a cognitive load for them to bear. Defeat will be swift.
I agree with Thomas that the mullahs in Iran may well find themselves in utter chaos at the same time. This cuts off command & control for the panicked Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Confused, frightened, flying blind, Hezbollah will collapse like a house of cards. After it’s all over, they STILL won’t quite understand what happened. By then, their time will be over.